COVID-19 and the Emerging World Order
BHARGAV KUMAR
How the world looked before it was
struck by the COVID-19 Virus?
With the mere passage of a few months the primeval
traces of the world that looks today, differs on all points. Where today's
scene resembles from United states suffering vehemently in the stroke of a
deadly virus and China's two months economic shutdown has brought its economy
from 5.7% to a mere 1.3% in terms of growth rate. The story of the world
doesn't look same. Before the introduction of this contagious virus the world
economy and its priority of particular Nations at individualistic level was
highly floating on the verge of vehement competition. China's One Belt One Road
(OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as global development strategy
including infrastructural development and investment in nearly seventy
countries were one of the arsenals at International levels. Such tendencies and
actions was witnessed in the US withdrawal from the TPP the prolonged US-China
trade war, Trumpian disregard of Climate Change crisis and Brexit. The
combating attempt like the "Quad" in the Indo-Pacific, a potential
security arrangement among the four large democracies Australia, India, Japan
and the US. All these seem to be destroyed at one go in the past four months.
Entry of Covid-19 and the World
Then came COVIS-19 a game changer on all the primeval
set ups as the initial cases were witnessed in Wuhan, a manufacturing hub in
China. In the globalized world, more than 210 nations are now affected in
varying degrees of this contagious and unresolved virus. The openness of the
economies of the world mostly looks like, based on three variables namely
tourism, trade and investment in this period of globalization. With the
ignorance of W.H.O and the failure to associate to the prerequisite threat and
potential of the contagious disease, It spread to Italy which is the largest
Cooperative trade partner but ever since the nation became BRI member in 2019
and the biggest destination for Chinese FDI. And that investment comes down to
Corona failure in Italy and it spread there like the aftermath. Likewise, Iran's
exposure to China with high Chinese investment and labor flow to Iran lead to
produce situation of threat of virus in Iran too. The high export exposure to South Korea,
Spain and finally the US, the novel Nation drastically affected by the virus
that witnessed its initiative and initial cases in Wuhan becomes its largest
sufferers at present. With over one and half million cases of covid-19 and more
than 40,000 and 80,000 deaths, no fatigue or epidemic has so harshly dominated
and thrashed these developed nations. India Malaysia Russia United Kingdom on
the other hand has continuous increase in the curve of areas of virus affected
population.
Consequences the World is Facing
With the introduction to the new word in Socio
Political domain "Lockdown" the whole world continues to fight against
this contagious disease. Though, the infection is caused by physical proximity
of humans of affected countries. Initially, that has turned to be the internal
consequences of all 210 Nations the countries have taken stringent action that
implies for the closer of all activities in public domain. The economy has
never become so fragile and trenched down the curve. There has been massive fallout of industrial
production. Joblessness and economic crisis of the world has made it biggest
casualty world has ever faced in monetary field. Globalization goals and
figures have been severely affected. The trade and Commerce has been crashed
and that has led to major change in regional connectivity to the micro and
macro level industries are all shutdown, trade investment has come to zero and
more obvious is the human capital movement has gone deep down. Global supply
chain have demolished as there is no productivity, wages problems, joblessness
have brought the problem of poverty and human sustainability of life globally.
A serious economic recession is looking to the world economies in future. But
apart from these, the growing number of mortality rate due to the virus and
patients and reducing length of chain of health sector and increasing pressure
on it has probably struck the whole world. The situation is a global and
international one and seems the two dug sides of well and Valley will lead to
death anyhow.
How the Future World looks like
Covid-19 though continues to spread its trail of death;
it is only natural to expect the world to never be the same again when the
virus eventually runs out of the steam. Big and small economies will face a
tough time in process of collecting the pieces of all over broken economy and
that would be a tough and arduous task as in the case of 2008- 09 economic recession. There will be another
exercise of alignment or even buyouts were the weak look to the strong for
survival. The UN significance is played balancing this pandemic yet again
questions it's testimony since its recreation after World War II. As it held
its meeting so henceforth and was much late to declare the snore of virus as a
pandemic when the whole world was already drowned in the drain of contagious
virus. Institutions like SAARC came up to stand much more on knees than floor
felt body but the outcome is not yet so productive as India led the meet and
the nations assured of mutual help, all the SAARC Nations continue to fight
their own race. European Union, the most progressive post National regional arrangement
is standing clueless when the virus has already spread like Wildfire in Europe.
Not just these are the indicators of higher but the
analysis of futuristic world that looks remain standing as:-
Economic world arena
Taking the major reference of the 2008-09 economic
depression, it can be e concluded that the economic world would yet again
emerge of another layer quality. The way covid-19 has trenched the world
economy may this time show its severe ways to revive than 2008-09 depression.
While the former was a striving Economic world that fought to revive out of
depression with more production, exchange value, imports and exports. But the latter
is the situation of the already stopped and stable economic world order that we
ought to see after covid-19 outbreak will be of another kind. The world
Economies are almost more than stable and locked down. There is almost no or
very less exports and imports. Globalization goals being severely affected,
that is gradually leading the Global value chain (GVC) is breaking to the
morsels. The state capitalist society has started continuing to pursue exchange
value as the guiding light of the economy. Countries like UK, Spain, Denmark
and India where the assistance of state cooperative society is clearly visible.
This can be positive sign for fighting against COVID epidemic but how will it
conclude in its farsighted form is yet to be seen. After following the covid-19
stroke, even if the world is able to control this epidemic, its contagious
nature will follow up with stricter immigration rules prevailing all across the
world. A nation like India that has boasted of providing skilled human capital
to the developed World may be a looser then it will it be a zenith breach on
the skilled Indian laborers who are highest in the world.
Social World Arena
Covid-19 has although brought the world together.
The recent meetings conducted amidst world organizations and nationwide groups
like G20, G7, SAARC, UNSC, UNGC, EU etc. have generated a light of hope in the
pandemic and recession. The Neolithic concerns of value ownership and centralized
policies of the government have embraced state socialism and barbarism at the
same time. The 80,000 deaths reported in USA and about 1.5 million cases in is
the result of barbarian policy of the US government in which economic relevance
dominated the social life concerns of its citizens. While the countries like
Japan, India, Britain, Brazil, Canada and Spain etc. took to the stringent
policy of state socialism and that is guided by the security of life of the
citizens as first step and lockdown is looked as that essence. While India has
some voids in the implementation process, as poverty takes over the scenario.
Though, India has the world's largest number of labor class, the situation was
unavoidable but the effect could have met some lines. The post COVID-19 will be
highly dominated by the nationalist and vehement approach of state-centered
decisions, the important concern in all the countries of the world shouldn't be
downtrodden to the factors of human rights of the citizens but for their
safety. Balanced and neutral step could be better way to go for the Nations
around the world. As the Corona effect will reduce the continent wide movement
and mobile activities from one Nation to other will also show because a new age
racism which is ultimately bound to happen as its linkage to the severely
affected Nations and their citizens.
The realm of Political domain
While mutual aid has brought many countries together
in this epidemic, the mutual responsibilities have clearly became a positive
factor in terms of narrowing the political gap amongst the world community. The
organizations which have been born for political considerations and cooperation
like WHO (World Health Organization) is highly on radar of the most affected
nations of the world like US, UK and France. On one side USA has stopped
funding the WHO, China is not left out from this spike. The actions of the
world community on WHO and China is the matter of future which is to be realized.
But the relationships and diplomatic bonds towards China and the organization
WHO will never be same in all aspects and spirits. International Organizations
such as G20, G7, United Nations, European Union have come up together but how
relevant would it work in post COVID period is a yet to watch trailer.
Hopes and Fears
These visions are extreme scenarios caricatures and
likely to bleed into one another. What is hopefully clear is that, all these
scenarios leave some grounds for fear but also some for hope. Covid-19 has
highlighted some serious deficiencies and some bonds in our existing world
order and World system. Though, it has brought radical change in the world
because it has affected the whole world profoundly. The world is facing
humanity's biggest crisis since World I and World War II; almost every country
has been affected by the devastating Corona virus disease.
Undoubtedly, the coronavirus has put the world
economy at a major risk; it has ravaged the social foundations of exchange
value of resources, interactions severe and stringent policies of the
Government and the state. The fear of the fulcrums of this virus outbreak can
be prodigiously vehement as an outcome of hyper globalization. However, the
world is going to face recession, joblessness, more severe and stringent rules
of the state and international laws that may exceed the World War 1 and World
War 2 combined. At the same time, the world can be hopeful towards the
Co-operative policies, balanced productivity and economic and social exchange
values in terms of cultural and monitory aspect while the world order would
definitely be based on the rudiment lines of a new fresh start for both the
socio-economic, diplomatic and cultural bindings and a hope for the better
world could be more reliable as soon as this epidemic ends.
Sources: - The Business Times, The
Hindu, New York Times
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